A large thunderstorm is going to be clipping western Gwinnett within an hour or so. Small hail, heavy rain, as well as cloud to ground lightning are going to be the main threats.

It's moving in from the NE from Hall county.

44 thousand feet tall! Nice one! I'm uploading a couple of images to see.

Uploaded here and links:
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_07/ffc_16.png
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_07/ffc_et_16.png

356 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WALTON...NEWTON AND MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 353 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SOCIAL CIRCLE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WALTON...NEWTON AND MORGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE REESE...RUTLEDGE...HARD
LABOR CREEK STATE PARK...HERNDONVILLE...SOCIAL CIRCLE...BRICK
STORE...STARRSVILLE...OXFORD...COVINGTON AND JERSEY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

410 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH
WINDS IN BARROW AND GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF THOMPSONS MILL...MOVING SOUTH AT
10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
BARROW AND GWINNETT COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE THOMPSONS MILL...CHATEAU ELAN...COUNTY
LINE...WINDER...CARL...AUBURN AND HOG MOUNTAIN. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

438 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND 45 MPH WINDS IN
GWINNETT AND HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 432 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR AQUALAND PARK...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
GWINNETT AND HALL COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CANDLER...CHESTNUT MOUNTAIN...ROAD
ATLANTA-LANIER SPEEDWAY...AQUALAND PARK...OAKWOOD...FLOWERY BRANCH...
LAKE LANIER ISLANDS...REST HAVEN...BUFORD DAM-LAKE LANIER PARKS...HOG
MOUNTAIN...SUWANEE...SUGAR HILL...DACULA AND BUFORD. DRIVERS SHOULD
USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

Here's the latest HPC 5 day forecast rainfall amounts:
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_07/rain_qpf_16.gif (see all the images here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_qpf_disco.php

If the Euro model has it's way, another cut-off low will park itself over the southeast and provide the focus for a rainy period over the next 7-10 days. The GFS doesn't quite have the same opinion but still shows a wetter than normal period. Either way, we still need the rain. The 2012 drought disaster is now the largest in over 50 years, and among the ten largest of the past century, according to a new report released by the National Climatic Data Center today.

Showers are already developing over North Georgia and are moving south toward Atlanta. Expect a pretty good chance for showers today and for the remainder of the week.

From the NWS:
AT 1148 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SANTA CLAUS THE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.
---------

Poor guy.

June 2012 ranked as the 10th driest June on record for the contiguous U.S. Since 1895, 20/30 (67%) of such cases also saw the summer rank as among the 30 driest. To date, summer 2012 appears on course for such an outcome.

An exceptionally dry summer often heralds a dry winter. Among the 30 driest summers on record, 20 (67%) were followed by among the 50 driest winters. 11 (55%) of those dry winters were followed by a dry fall (50 driest on record), while 9 (45%) were followed by a wet fall (50 wettest on record).

For the first 6 months, 2012 was the 16th driest year on record. The last time the U.S. had less precipitation in the first half of the year was 2002 (11th driest). Whether or not the U.S. has moved into a regime that will feature generally dry years remains to be seen.

At least Rudolph can see through it!

Oh no, Grayson is planning a Christmas in July. Hope this doesn't have a negative impact. :)

Please keep the big sprinler turned off until I can catch up on grass cutting! ;)

A fairly large thunderstorm is headed south toward Walton county. The storm is currently 49kft in height over winder, this is a nice one. Doesn't appear any hail in this yet.

Eastern Gwinnett might be in the path of this one also.

144 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN WALTON COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 142 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MONROE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WALTON COUNTY THROUGH 215 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE MOUNT VERNON...WINDSOR...NICHOLASVILLE...LOGANVILLE...
GRATIS...CAMPTON...BOLD SPRINGS...BETWEEN...MONROE...YOUTH...GOOD
HOPE...PANNELL...HERNDONVILLE...EBENEZER AND WALNUT GROVE. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

I still don't see hail in this storm on radar... actually it comes and goes but is probably not hitting the ground right now.

234 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GWINNETT COUNTY...

AT 232 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MOUNTAIN PARK...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CENTERVILLE AND MOUNTAIN PARK.

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GWINNETT COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL GWINNETT
COUNTY AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Another round of rain today and through the rest of the week. The NWS has up our chances for rain to 60% all the way through Friday and I expect the same for the weekend also. We still need a lot more rain to break the persistent drought that's had it's hold over the entire state. We're currently better than last year when we had 40% of the state under a D4 or exceptional drought conditions, currently we stand at around 22% which is considerably better.
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_drought_monitor.php

But we're still below normal in rainfall. You can see from these climate maps the rain deficit that we're running, so far about 6" below normal for Atlanta.
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_climate_graphs_ffc.php

Showers have already started breaking out early this morning over western Georgia moving south, in response to the area of low pressure spinning over south Georgia. Impulses will rotate counter-clockwise around this low pressure and will be the focus for the development of showers today. They seem to be getting started earlier today than yesterday so that might be a sign that we'll have greater chances of rain today also.

If you go to this page and click on Water Vapor Loop, you will see the counter-clockwise upper level air flow on the SC/GA border that is ever so slowly drifting west and slightly north.
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sat_se_us.php

In less than an hour my temperature will be over 90 degrees and already have a dew point of 75 degrees. Lot's of moisture and heat to fire off these storms this afternoon.

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN DEKALB AND GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 430 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORCROSS THE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS DEKALB AND GWINNETT COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE NORCROSS...MECHANICSVILLE...LILBURN...
MOUNTAIN PARK...PLEASANT HILL AND LAWRENCEVILLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

447 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHERN GWINNETT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 444 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DULUTH...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LILBURN...LAWRENCEVILLE...DACULA...SNELLVILLE AND GRAYSON.

The cell just southwest of Lawrenceville is 50 thousand feet high.
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_07/et_1.png

505 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WALTON...OCONEE AND BARROW COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 503 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER GRATIS...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WALTON...OCONEE AND BARROW COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE NICHOLASVILLE...GRATIS...
CAMPTON...FORT YARGO STATE PARK...WINDER...RUSSELL...BETHLEHEM...
MOUNT VERNON AND STATHAM. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
518 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BARROW COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHEASTERN WALTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

Take a look at this image. It's the radar estimated rainfall totals over the last day and a half. I messed with the opacity so you could see the map below but you'll notice that some areas of Hamilton Mill got a lot more rain than others.
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_07/srt_1_fade.png

0.35" here and still raining.

Last three hour radar estimated rainfall
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_07/ohp_1.png

Well, are we enjoying the rain yet? I hope so because the rain train is still rolling with no end in sight until the middle of next week, and then not for long!

We're starting off with increased cloud cover this morning which will help to keep the afternoon temperatures down a little bit. But our precipitable water values are in the 1.9" range which is more moist than it was yesterday morning.

Here's an excerpt from the Forecast Discussion with some good advice at the end:

THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS OUR MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN... RESULTING IN A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.
HOWEVER... CAPE VALUES ALSO INDICATE ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE... WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. ANY HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE SMALL...GENERALLY IN THE PEA TO DIME SIZE... WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 15K FT.
AS ALWAYS... EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN AND AROUND STORMS... SO REMEMBER... WHEN THUNDER ROARS... GO INDOORS!

Note the freezing level and remember some of the storms yesterday and the day before reached 50K feet in height, and you see why hail can be an issue.

The Southeast had its 20th coolest June on record.

How do we reconcile global warming with the coolest June?? :)

"The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during June was 71.2°F, which is 2.0°F above the 20th century average. The June temperatures contributed to a record-warm first half of the year and the warmest 12-month period the nation has experienced since record keeping began in 1895. Scorching temperatures during the second half of the month led many cities to set all-time temperature records." - NOAA

"The January-June period was the warmest first half of any year on record for the contiguous United States. The national temperature of 52.9°F was 4.5°F above average." - NOAA

"Record-breaking temperatures occurred across a large portion of the nation during the second half of June. Over 170 all-time warm temperature records were broken or tied during the month. Temperatures in South Carolina (113°F) and Georgia (112°F) are currently under review by the U.S. State Climate Extremes Committee as possible all-time statewide temperature records." - NOAA

I will take these afternoon thunderstorms any day. I remember when we were in our years of horrible drought and we did not get these showers. Makes the yard maintenance a little trickier, but water is a necessary thing for humans.

I just uploaded two images showing the status of the corn and soybean crops in the 3 largest producing states, it's not pretty.

http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_07/corn.jpg
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_07/soybean.jpg

Looks like we're going to have a very rainy Friday morning. Remnants of an old MCS that had been over TN/KY last night are moving SE into our area this morning. The main area is just now moving into NW Georgia but other showers and thundershowers are breaking out ahead of it as it pushes our way.

Here's what it looks like currently at 7:13 am
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_07/morning_20.png

The SPC has outlined our area in a Slight Risk category for severe weather today.
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_day1_outlook.php

And from the Atlanta office of the NWS:
THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL OCCUR DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING AS AN ACTIVE UPPER TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A MOIST
(NEAR 2 INCH PW`S) AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS (1500-2500 J/KG CAPE) TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNING`S MCS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT... AND THIS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY OVER NORTH GA WHERE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE LINGERING. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM A STRENGTHENING SW MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO TN TODAY COULD AID IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY IF ENHANCED BY WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE UPPER TROUGH TODAY.

This mornings rain has pretty much dissipated before arriving here.

Steve, are we still at risk for afternoon storm activity?

Lastest from NWS FFC:
NONE OF THE HIRES MODELS HAD THE MCS REMNANTS LASTING SO LONG THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE PRETTY STABLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA RIGHT NOW WITH CAPES BELOW 500 IN THE RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS.

HOWEVER...BEHIND THE CIRRUS SHIELD...
TEMPS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO INCREASE AND AT AFD TIME AM STARTING
TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE NEAR CHA. THINK THAT IN THE END THE
INSTABILITY WILL CATCH UP. 12Z KFFC MODIFIED SOUNDING WITH LOWER
70S DEWPOINTS AND A HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S GIVES OVER 3000 J/KG SBCAPE SO AT THIS POINT STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE. POPS MAY
ACTUALLY NEED TO BE INCREASED INTO THE AFTERNOON ONCE WE GET A
HANDLE ON LOCATION AND MOVEMENT.

Well... yesterday WASN'T the day that the NWS or the computer models had called for. I didn't get any rain until evening and then only 0.22". don't get me wrong, I'm not complaining, I was just being greedy and hoping for more.

Today should be different as we have a cold front that's forecast to sag into our area from the north, and that will provide the focus for afternoon and evening thundershowers. Once again this morning, the morning satellite images ( http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sat_se_us_z.php ) show us covered by a low cloud deck with showers around the area and those clouds and showers are helping to keep the temperatures nice and cool... but not what we need for heavy rainfall. People to our south will have more breaks in the clouds and those areas can expect to see the bigger thunderstorms as well as the possibility of a few of the storms becoming severe.

920 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IN WILKES...WALTON...TALIAFERRO...OGLETHORPE...
OCONEE...NEWTON...MORGAN. ..GREENE AND JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL
1015 AM EDT...

AT 915 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEWTOWN TO STARRSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
WILKES...WALTON...TALIAFERRO...OGLETHORPE...OCONEE...NEWTON...
MORGAN...GREENE AND JASPER COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND REESE...
CELESTE...NEWTOWN...RAYLE...WASHINGTON...CARTERS GROVE...PENFIELD...
GRESHAMVILLE...WOODVILLE...PHILOMATH...MADISON...STEWART...NEWBORN...
MANSFIELD AND BUCKHEAD. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

1015 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN IN WALTON...NEWTON...MORGAN AND JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM
EDT...

AT 1011 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTERDALE TO FARRAR...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
WALTON...NEWTON...MORGAN AND JASPER COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND
FARRAR...STARRSVILLE...PORTERDALE...NEWBORN...MANSFIELD...
COVINGTON...REESE...BRICK STORE...OXFORD...REESE...RUTLEDGE...
MADISON...HARD LABOR CREEK STATE PARK...APALACHEE AND BOSTWICK.
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.