Everyone have fun with (no) snow?! I know, trust me, I'm leaning toward any forecast that includes the words snow/sleet/ice, and there was a shot the other day, it just didn't quite pan out.
The storm track was too far north and there was basically no cold air to work with. We were hoping for a more dynamic storm here but as it started to lift north it opened up and most of the energy was transferred away from our area. The mountains blocked any low level wrap around moisture so we were left high and dry. That was not the type of system we're looking for to get a good snowstorm here though. I'll do a little research and show you how some of the great Atlanta snowstorms have evolved and where they tracked.
I hear people getting antsy about no serious cold already. Tommy is already poo-pooing the idea that the strat warming occurred and it was all a government plot (sorry, just kidding Tommy! :-)) and Kristi wants 70+ degrees for the rest of the winter. But guys... it's coming, like it or not! :-)
Back on January 7th I said that our record warm temperatures would peak around the 13-15th and we actually peaked on the 12th at 71ºF went to 63 on the 16th and lower from there.
On the 11th I thought the cold air would be delayed until the 20-24th which would correspond with the cold shot we're getting Monday/Tuesday. This will be a transient shot and will quickly get pushed eastward by a Pacific low crashing through the western ridge.
Don Sutherland, a name you'll you'll come to recognize if you follow my post, gave his thoughts last night about the upcoming pattern. "As we head toward February, one of the stronger analogs that has been coming up over the past week is 1967. Adding support for that emerging idea is the recent cooling ofENSO Region 3.4 and the latest CFSv2 monthly forecast (these images are above or click here for temp and precip). If this emerging idea is right, February could wind up the coldest month of the winter relative to normal across much of North America."
Another meteorologist with an intimate knowledge of the GWO or Global Wind Oscillation, had some follow up thoughts after Don. "Just a quick up date, got the revised GWO numbers in earlier today and as HM and I have been eluding to, there is lots of chaos in the atmosphere this week especially, but also the up coming week, so I'd take extra precaution with the GWO numbers. As talked about the other day, the xt RTW that was in the Pacific back on Wednesday appears it will still be coming over the ridge while breaking it down a bit, and still on schedule to arrive late 24th/early 25th east of the MS. Ushering cooler air for Jan 26-29 (matching Don's thoughts) and a reinforcement of colder air for Jan 31-Feb 2 (this one looks like a decent shot) and then a 5-10 degree warm up for Feb 2-4 with another S/W-shot of cold Feb 5-7 (decent shot of cold here to) and S/W cooler air Feb 7-11. There is a xt RW over India right now that I circled that times out to arriving Feb 4/5 which adds credence to the Feb. 5-7 time frame for a S/W moving through the East Coast."
So this is the way it's looking:
- Jan 24 - 25 - Stormy
- Jan 26 - 29 - Cold shot
- Jan 31 - 02 - Reinforcing good cold shot
- Feb 02 - 04 - Warm-up
- Feb 05 - 07 - Stormy/ good cold shot
- Feb 07 - 11 - Stormy/ cold shot
I am no expert on the GWO... so I have to trust the experts here. These two have pretty much nailed this winter so far, so I'm excited to see how their forecast turns out. Right now I see no reason to deviate from their thoughts or mine, either way, we can all track it together.
The more sustained cold will occur the last week of the month well into February. There will be multiple chances for winter precipitation during that period. Temperatures will be below normal to well below normal with occasional quick warm-ups in between. We haven't seen our last chance for snow by any stretch of the imagination, and February and March are some of the best months for snow in our area, a cold February will most certainly help those odds.
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