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A Romney Comeback?

Much ado was made last week of the “Romney-surge”...

Much ado has been made this week of the “Romney-surge”. This surge has been pointed out due to the tightening of the race in states such as Virginia and Florida and the disappearance of the massive 15+ point leads President Obama held in August. While it is true the race has tightened, the sweeping Romney surge is likely just a combination of the natural propensity races have to tighten closer to Election Day and the media trying to conjure up viewership through sensationalism.

I won’t sugar coat it. It’s a lot closer than it would have been thanks to President Obama’s less than stellar performance at the first debate.

That debates influence over the surge has died down at this point though. Voters have internalized four debates and are now trying to decide who to vote for in the critical swing states. (Although the amount of undecided voters left has dwindled significantly.)

While polls aren’t perfect, they do give a general idea of what is trending in the race at the time they are taken. Below I’ve linked a chart compiling eight major polls which Nate Silver of the New York Times compiles weekly.

As you can see from Silver’s data compilation, last week Romney was trending upwards slightly picking up small gains in the national polls and some state polls. (Namely Florida and North Carolina)

This week, following a rather boring debate, these numbers are starting to reverse back towards the President. The President gained in five of the eight surveys with only one showing a gain for Romney. The newest array of state polling reflects a similar trend with President Obama gaining 1 to 2 points in most surveys.

Why then is the Romney surge being hyped away as the next great story?

It makes a great story to draw audiences, simple as that. Think about when you go to a baseball game. Are you more likely to watch a game that is 7-7 in the eighth inning or a blowout 10-0? We like suspenseful races and games.

Sensationalizing the race is an effort on the part of the media to keep the war weary viewers clinging to pundit shows and “Special Reports” which would be ignored for the World Series or football otherwise. Another reason for this surge being clamored behind is that it serves the Romney campaign to promote a narrative which benefits itself. Much like Democrats seize on positive talking-points the Republicans are quick to do the same here. (Even if it isn’t real in this case, but Romney has never had a problem with the facts) Combine that with the aforementioned love of a good show and you have a match made in heaven for the hyper-quick cycle of one minute news we now live in.

Reprinted from State Senator Curt Thompson's (D-5th) blog. Also, check the Senator out onFacebook and Twitter.

This post is contributed by a community member. The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Patch Media Corporation. Everyone is welcome to submit a post to Patch. If you'd like to post a blog, go here to get started.

George Wilson October 30, 2012 at 08:36 PM
President Obama seems to be gaining some strength with Romney's continued missteps and just plain incompetence continues to plague his campaign. : Obama has received praise from Governor Christie, his demeanor during the crisis, replays of Governor Romney advocating the abdication of FEMA's role and the general impacts of the Ryan/Romney budget on programs like FEMA. Romney getting caught with another lie in another false ad about Chrysler moving Jeep production to China .When in fact they are planning on hiring 1100 workers in Ohio. And by the way, their profits are up 80% this quarter. Early voting is also showing an Obama lead and a turn around in North Carolina certainly makes this a race.
George Wilson November 01, 2012 at 03:20 AM
I have known a lot of politicians in my life, but I have never seen anyone who switches his positions so often as Governor Romney. He exhibits no core values. The astounding and not-so-funny thing is that he gets away with it. (I fully expected to see those "flip-flop" ads with the fish, and I am still puzzled as to why they never materialized.) How could you trust someone like this? Governor Romney is the master of tricks, and the nation will be the recipient if he is elected..

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